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Analysis and forecast of power supply and demand situation in the second half of the year

日期:2012-07-18

The second half of the year, in ensuring the supply of coal and water under normal conditions, the overall balance of the country's electricity supply and demand than local surplus. But the local area by the coal supply, climate and other uncertain factors, may still be short of power supply and demand situation. From the perspective of power supply capacity, power investment is expected in 2010 will remain relatively large, the annual power supply and power grid are expected to invest 330 billion yuan, the annual national power investment completed 660 billion yuan, lower than the 2009 level. Continue to optimize the investment structure, investment in urban and rural power distribution network will gradually increase the proportion of investment in power investment in thermal power will continue to be less than 50%, hydropower, nuclear power will continue to increase the proportion of investment. It is expected that in 2010 the national infrastructure new installed capacity of 90 million kilowatts, plans to shut down small thermal power units 10 million kilowatts. Considering the construction factors and add the "off small" after the end of 2010, the national power generation installed capacity will exceed 950 million kilowatts, of which, 210 million kilowatts of hydropower, thermal power 700 million kilowatts, 10 million 160 thousand kilowatts of nuclear power, wind power 30 million kilowatts. From the power supply ability and risk factors point of view, especially in the second half of the peak summer period, the national electricity demand will remain relatively strong in level, is expected in the second half of the coal market prices will stabilize at a high level, rising power still exists, the production difficulties of thermal power enterprises will continue. Is expected in 2010 the national power generation, heating power plant production more than 17 tons of coal consumption. Is expected in the second half of the national climate will remain a drastic change, in most areas of high temperature or low probability, floods and other weather is still a great part of the time power protection capacity will be under great challenge. From the perspective of power demand and supply and demand situation, it is expected that China's economy and electricity consumption will remain at a certain level in the second half of the year. Because the base last year, 2010 electricity consumption growth has shown high stability of the basic trend, the second half of the total electricity consumption growth will slow down to around 5%, the annual electricity consumption grew 12%, reached 4 trillion and 100 billion kwh. The average annual utilization of power generation equipment is expected to be about 4650 hours, up to 2008 levels; the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment will be more than 5000 hours, an increase of more than 200 hours over the previous year.

所属种别: Industry dynamics